Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2026. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Quebec’s climate policy framework is set out in the 2030 Plan for a Green Economy. It targets a 37.5% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 and carbon “neutrality” by 2050. Neutrality essentially means the almost complete elimination of GHG emissions by 2050, 24 years from now. How likely is it to succeed?
There are three main sources of energy supply. Electricity provides 707 petajoules (PJ), or 41%, of the province’s needs. Over 99% of the electricity generated is from renewable energy sources, almost entirely from low-cost hydro. As impressive as this is, it is less than half the energy that Quebecers use. The other two major energy sources are refined petroleum products, which supply 599 PJ (35% of the total), and natural gas ( 235 PJ, or 14%). Hydrocarbons thus supply about half of Quebec’s energy needs, more than electricity.
Quebec governments have implemented climate policies since the early 1990’s, and especially since 2010. In 2010, provincial emissions were 79 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq). In 2024, Quebec’s total GHG emissions were 78 MtCO2eq, barely changed from 2010.
According to Quebec government estimates, reducing emissions to meet the 2030 target will cost the province approximately $38 billion, and potentially reduce GDP by $20 billion by 2030. The government has published no estimates of the cost of reaching complete decarbonization by 2050.
Complete decarbonization means eliminating virtually all the consumption of hydrocarbons in the industrial, commercial, transportation, residential and agricultural sectors. Each of those sectors poses a unique set of challenges.
Road travel (cars and trucks) produces about 31% of Quebec’s emissions, while air, rail, marine and off-road transport produce about 12%. Quebec has already invested billions of dollars in trying to replace gasoline and diesel fuel use in its transportation system and to get people out of cars and into electrified public transit. By the end of 2025, Quebec had approximately 441,000 registered zero-emission and plug-in hybrid light duty vehicles. This accounts for roughly 6 to 7 percent of the total vehicle fleet in the province. Less than 1% of Quebec’s heavy-duty and medium-duty commercial trucks are electrified.
Industry and manufacturing account for about 28% of total GHG emissions in Quebec. A list of the largest industrial emitters reads like a profile of the most important economic firms in Quebec: Alcoa Canada, Aluminerie Alouette, Shawinigan Aluminierie and Aluminerie Becancour in aluminum; St. Mary’s Cement and Ciment Quebec Inc. in cement; Rio Tinto Alcan; Bombardier; Glencore Canada; Domtar, Valero refinery; and so on. So far, in spite of its ambitious claims about achieving net-zero, Quebec has not embraced the challenge of forcing (or massively subsidizing) its largest industrial firms to comply.
Some 230,000 to 235,000 homes in Quebec rely on natural gas for heating and they will not welcome being required to change.
Agriculture accounts for around 7 to 8 MtCO2eq, or 10 percent of Quebec’s GHG emissions. There are both economic and biological limits to how much emissions can be reduced. For example, eliminating livestock methane and fertilizer-based nitrous oxide entirely without drastically shrinking herd sizes or crop outputs requires unproven or only emerging technologies.
Hydro-Quebec estimates that it needs more than 100 terawatt-hours of additional electricity – more than half its annual generating capacity – to reach the government’s goal of being “carbon neutral” by 2050. It seeks to add 8,000-9,000 MW of generating capacity by 2050, and to add 5,000 km of transmission lines. The investments needed to achieve this amount to $110 billion by 2035.
Climate change policy must be viewed in an international context. Canada produces only 1.5% of the annual global GHG emissions, and Quebec produces less than 0.2%. Quebec’s per capita GHG emissions are around 9.1 tonnes, roughly half the Canadian average.
The political case for pursuing net-zero policies rests upon the thesis that the countries of the world are committed to sharply reducing and eventually eliminating greenhouse gas emissions. In 2025 the world emitted 35,806 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, continuing the increases that have occurred since 1990. Significantly, the non-OECD countries now produce 69% of the world’s GHG emissions. Almost all the growth in emissions is occurring in the non-OECD countries and especially in Asia.
The obstacles in the way of Quebec attaining full decarbonization by 2050 are immense and overcoming them will be extremely costly as well as probably unfeasible regardless of the costs incurred.
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