Bait and Switch

The Carney EV Mandates

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2025. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On February 6, 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced major changes to the climate policies intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles in Canada. The changes were presented as though they would provide positive things such as “revitalizing” electric vehicle sales by increasing subsidies to consumers who purchase EVs, “encouraging” investment in EV production and “investing” (i.e. providing massive taxpayer subsidies) in national EV recharging infrastructure.

The federal government’s target for increased sales of zero-emission vehicles has not been met. The goals were that Canadian vehicle manufacturers would achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035 for all new light-duty vehicles, and that interim targets of at least 20% by 2026 and at least 60% by 2030 also be met. According to Statistics Canada, as of the end of September 2025, Canadian zero-emission vehicle sales experienced a significant slowdown, averaging only 6.5% to 10.2 % of new vehicle registrations. New zero-emission vehicle sales in November 2025 were 17,059, a decrease of 36% from 2024. We are a long way from meeting the government’s goals for 2026.

A policy target for emissions reductions doesn’t equate to emissions reductions – that takes technological change, fleet changes, time, and money. Which really means that in 2035 – less than 10 years from today – when the only vehicles which conform to this standard are EVs, that will be all that consumers can buy.

There are many potential explanations for the failure of zero-emission vehicles to increase, in spite of the massive government support and cost to taxpayers. These include continuing consumer skepticism about the affordability of the vehicles and the availability of recharging stations. There is also uncertainty about future pricing and subsidies. The auto industry in Canada has failed to foster break-through, engineering-driven product innovation that would enhance the attraction of EVs.

There are other, broader factors that have only begun to be felt. A major impediment to the global rollout of the EV technologies is that they require far more minerals and materials than are currently being produced. To meet international EV adoption mandates by 2030, the world would need 388 new mines worldwide. For context, in 2021 there were only 340 metal mines operating in Canada and the United States combined. Identifying, planning and constructing a new mine (when not opposed by environmentalists and indigenous groups) can take up to 18 years. The supply requirements simply cannot be met in the timeframes targeted.

The federal plan includes the re-introduction of $5,000 subsidies for EV purchases. $5,000 may be marginally effective in increasing purchases of cars that now range from $55,000 to $70,000, although most of these subsidies will go to those with higher incomes who probably could have afforded to buy anyway. The real emphasis, therefore, will probably be on increasing the stringency of emissions regulations to the point at which conventional vehicles simply cannot meet them – an EV mandate accomplished by stealth rather than more explicit rule-making.

Governments can restrict, ban, tax and subsidize all they wish, especially if they place little emphasis on considerations of costs, benefits and consumers’ free choices. However, they cannot force people to buy.

The loss of alignment with US emissions regulations will undoubtedly have negative effects on the Canadian vehicle manufacturers and the companies in their supply chains, both in Canada and the United States. The Canadian motor vehicle manufacturing industry is a major economic driver, with the broader transportation equipment sector rebounding to $124.2 billion in revenue by 2022, heavily boosted by light-duty vehicle production. It contributes over $16 billion annually to GDP, supports 500,000+ jobs, and is a top export sector.

As for environmental benefits, over the 2019 to 2035 period there could be a reduction of 70 million tonnes per year. That is about a 10 percent decline in Canada’s annual emissions, emissions that account for only 1.5 percent of the global total. Even the complete elimination of Canada’s transportation emissions by 2050 would have an effect on global emissions and temperatures that is too small to measure.

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