British Columbia – Ideology vs. The Economy
Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2025. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
One of the most divisive sets of political issues in British Columbia (BC) has been the competition between energy development and environmental goals. In this article, I will try to describe how this competition has played out with respect to the province’s climate and related energy policies.
BC today faces many issues concerning the appropriate balance between energy and broader economic goals on the one hand and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to meet climate policy goals on the other. The CleanBC Act, passed in 2010, committed the province to reducing GHG emissions by 16% below 2007 levels by 2025, 40% by 2030, 60% by 2040 and 80% by 2050. Doing so, however, will undoubtedly worsen B.C.’s economy.
In 2023, BC produced 113.2 thousand barrels per day of crude oil, including condensate and pentanes plus. Most of the production was from the north-east portion of the province. Crude oil production was largely unchanged from 2017 to 2023. In 2023, natural gas production in BC averaged 6.7 billion cubic feet per day, which was about 36% of Canada’s total. Gas production increased from about 3.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2013. While this implies that there is considerable public support for fossil fuel development, history tells a somewhat different story.
For example, there is no oil or natural gas production from BC’s offshore areas. The Geological Survey of Canada’s median estimate for in-place petroleum potential in the Queen Charlotte Basin is that it contains 9.8 billion barrels of oil and 25.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Yet, no offshore drilling has been allowed since before the 1980s. This is because of strong public opposition based on fears of oil spills, which in turn has caused both the provincial and federal governments to impose moratoria.
A British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines scientific panel found in 2002 that there is no scientific basis for a moratorium on oil and gas development.1 Yet, the province has chosen to forego the economic benefits of development.
BC has two oil refineries, the Prince George refinery and the Burnaby refinery. Historically, there were more refineries, but market forces (including the general rationalization of the refining industry across Canada in the post-1970s period) and regulatory hurdles to the construction of new refineries reduced the capacity. As a result, much of BC’s refined product needs are met by supplies from Alberta and to a lesser extent from refineries in the Puget Sound region of Washington state.
While environmentalists are pleased that virtually all electricity production is from “clean” sources, they continue to lobby for increased investment in wind and solar energy to meet future electricity demand.
In 2020, fossil fuels accounted for 65% of BC’s energy use. The province’s total emissions in 2000 were 67.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) and they declined by 1.5 MtCO2e or 2.25 % by 2022. Annual emissions from energy production actually increased by 1.8 MtCO2e, or 3.3% over that period, while annual manufacturing emissions declined by 3.8 MtCO2e, or 49%.
British Columbia’s climate policy measures are included in the government’s CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 (CleanBC). Much of the public attention concerning these measures has focused on the imposition of carbon taxes, allegedly the most economically efficient policy instruments for reducing emissions. However, CleanBC also includes at least 24 other measures that run the gamut of possible tax, subsidy and regulatory options.
The province’s own the modelling of the effects of provincial climate policies projects that British Columbia’s GDP will have declined by $29.3 billion over the period 2019 to 2024 as a result of the climate measures implemented over that timeframe. Further, taking into account the measures that the NDP government has announced, there will be an additional reduction in GDP growth of $109.7 billion over the period 2025 to 2029. The province is on a path towards its weakest economic growth in history. Still, the most recent Abacus Poll2 indicates that, despite its policies, the Premier Eby and the New Democratic Party retain the support of provincial voters. 40% of those polled either mostly approve or strongly approve of the Eby government, compared to 31% who either mostly disapprove or strongly disapprove.
The province’s economic dilemma is not due to a lack of opportunities. Instead, the public and the elected officials have repeatedly turned their backs on the opportunities for oil, gas and coal-related growth that might have yielded many billions of dollars in tax and royalty revenues and greatly increased spinoff-related employment. They have left themselves more and more dependent on energy supplies from neighbouring regions, and exposed both to potential supply disruptions and price volatility.
1 https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/documents_staticpost/cearref_21799/86129/Offshore_Hydrocarbon.pdf
2 https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-bc-poll-eby-government-holds-the-edge-a-year-after-the-provincial-election/
So thankful that your organization still exists and reminds of the actual truth about whether there is a climate emergency and the policies which are hurting our economies and our way of life instead of actually helping our climate.