EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The recent severe flooding in Europe has resulted in the usual immediate media attribution of weather events to human-caused climate change. The implied story behind the “news” is that countries like Canada must end their use of reliable and affordable hydrocarbon energy to stop the flooding . Is this true? What does the science really say?
The foremost scientific authority of the United Nations responsible for climate-related analysis is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is generally regarded by those who advocate for major emissions reductions as the most reliable source, and its reports actually written by scientists are generally well respected.
The IPCC commissioned a special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (the SREX) which reported in 2021. It assigned “low confidence” that changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods are occurring at the global scale.
This assessment was confirmed by the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC is the latest in a series of reports that assess the available scientific information on climate change. AR6 found that peak water flow trends varied significantly by region and “lacked statistical significance of an increase or decrease over the globe as a whole”. In addition, the report stated that evidence of a climate change signal with respect to river flooding is not present for all time frames out to at least 2100. With respect to mean precipitation (i.e. average rainfall), there is no current signal and such a signal is judged only to emerge before 2100 only under the worst case (RSP8.5/SSP-8.5) scenario.
This is what needs to be reported.
Excellent article.