Ever More Oil and Gas: A Constructive Reality Climate Alarmists Cannot Avoid

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2022. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.

This paper will show that the world’s supply of economically and technically recoverable oil and gas resources is enormous and growing, that sources of supply in future will increasingly move to developing regions that value their economic contribution, and that it will be virtually impossible for climate campaigners to impair these developments.

For decades, there have been false claims that world is “running out of oil”. Instead, the supply of oil and natural gas, as measured by the proven reserves, has constantly increased. According to the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, at the end of 2020 global proven oil reserves totaled 1.73 trillion barrels and proven natural gas reserves totaled 6,642 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The Middle East has almost half the proven oil reserves, but Venezuela and Canada together have over a quarter. The world’s natural gas reserves, in contrast, are largely in Asia.

The United States Geological Survey is the premier authority on global oil and gas resources considered to be either technically recoverable but not commercially exploitable in present market conditions or as yet undiscovered. These add at least 656 billion barrels of oil and 5,606 Tcf of natural gas. Much of the undiscovered resources are estimated to be in Russia, the Middle East, and North and sub-Saharan Africa in developing regions that would welcome the economic opportunities offered by resource development.

There are other sources of unconventional oil and gas, notably from deep under-water production platforms of the type increasingly seen in the Brazilian offshore, in the high Arctic (now barely touched in terms of exploration), in ultra-deep onshore wells below 15,000 feet, and in natural gas extracted from hydrates. It is almost impossible to predict which new recovery technologies may become available. If the past is any guide, however, the supply of oil and gas in established economically recoverable reserves is likely to go on growing for the indefinite future.

The climate policies endorsed by OECD countries, especially in Europe and North America, embrace the goal of decarbonization, or the effective ending of oil, natural gas and coal consumption by 2050. Never before in human history have governments attempted to eliminate the use of commodities whose supply is likely to be ever more plentiful. The actual global demand trends, driven by economic and population growth in the non-OECD countries are moving precisely counter to these stated policy objectives. Increased resource availability is likely to support these trends.