Outcome Of COP 28 – Just The Facts

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2023. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.

The 28^th Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 13, 2023. According to various reports, more than 100,000 people attended the conference and its associated events.

Most of the outcomes of the conference are listed in the conference decision on the “Outcome of the first global stocktake”. The decision document is 21 pages of highly bureaucratic language mostly recalling past COP decisions and exhorting the Parties to increased efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

In the following summary of the conferences results, I will summarize them with reference to some of the key themes of the conference as set out by the Conference Chair.

 “Stimulating a course correction for climate action”

Goal: Using the recently completed global “stock take” on the performance  of countries to reduce emissions fast enough to meet the 1.5 degrees C. goal, the conference sought to bring political pressure to bear on countries urgently to adopt more stringent emission-reduction policies both pre-2030 and pre-2035.

These plans are called the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The UN “stocktake” was intended to be an assessment, based on the NDCs, and the measurement of GHG emissions reductions achieved to date, of how well the Parties were doing in seeking to reduce emissions so as to meet the aspirational goal of limiting the rise in average global temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees C. by 2100.

The stocktake “recognized” that “limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C. with no or limited overshoot requires peaking in global greenhouse gas emissions at the latest before 2025 and rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050”.

The NDC analysis found that GHG emission levels in 2030 are “likely to be 5.3 per cent lower than in 2019 if all NDCs, including all conditional elements, are fully implemented and that enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support are as needed to support this.”

The decision document “called on the Parties” voluntarily to make national efforts to do eight things:

• Triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the annual average rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
• Accelerate efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
• Accelerate efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
• Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050;
• Accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including inter alia renewable, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production;
• Accelerate and substantially reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in articular methane emissions by 2030;
• Accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero-emission and low-emission vehicles; and
• Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.

While this statement of goals is not binding, much of the negotiation of the decision document focused on it, especially on the reference to “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. The UN and the EU tried unsuccessfully to get agreement on “phasing out” or “phasing down” fossil fuel use and production, but were unable to get agreement on those words.

“Delivering on promises made to the developing world”

 Goal: The conference sought to ‘operationalize” the Loss and Damages Fund that was approved in principle at COP27, elicit voluntary pledges, and seek longer-term financial pledges. It also sought of agreement on the level of the post-2025 climate aid commitment (hoping for at least USD 1.4 trillion per year).

The decision document stated that the adaptation finance needs of the developing countries are estimated at USD 215-387 billion annually up until 2030, and that about USD 4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030, increasing thereafter to USD 5 trillion per year up until 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

The conference sought support for more funds for climate adaptation and for “operationalizing” the Loss and Damages fund (the fund intended to tax developed countries to pay for the adverse effects of severe weather events in developing countries).  To date, there is no agreement on which countries should pay and how much they should pay or on which countries will qualify to receive payments and how much they will qualify to receive. It remains to seen which “extreme weather events” are considered to be caused by human-related GHG emissions and which are not.

The decision document “noted with deep regret” that the  goal of having Annex II countries (i.e. mainly the OECD developed countries) provide at least $100 billion in climate aid per year in the pre-2025 period was not met in 2021. It welcomed pledges made by 31 contributors (including Canada) for the “replenishment” of the Green Climate Fund, resulting in a nominal pledge of USD 12.8 billion to date (i.e. a long way from USD 1.4 trillion).

The document also welcomed the pledges made to provide USD 188 million for the Adaptation Fund (i.e. far below the billions per year sought) and pledges for USD 792 million for Loss and Damages. These were voluntary commitments, so there was no agreement to make them obligatory.

“Scaling Up Accountability”

Goal: The conference sought to “add new mechanisms for regular follow up of NDC implementation through the existing UNFCCC institutions.  The conference also sought member states’ agreement to have additional summit meetings (to keep up the political pressures at the highest levels); and the “mobilization” of non-state actors” like ENGOs, Indigenous groups and municipalities. Finally, it sought agreement to further international “coordination of regulation”.

The decision document included no reference to the increased institutional and governance structures discussed and agreed to at the conference.

The United Nations produces reports on the Global Climate Action Portal listing all the announcements made at COP 28. There were 175 separate announcements, the titles and brief descriptions of which require 45 pages of dense text. Many new organizations and initiatives were announced covering a wide range of topics.

Next Meetings

COP 29 will take place in Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22, 2024 and Brazil will host COP 30 from November 10 to 21 2025.