Contributed by Robert Lyman 2020. Lyman’s bio can be read here.
There are four ways in which actual global trends are diverging more and more from the predictions upon which climate activists base their claims of impending catastrophe and allegedly “inevitable decarbonization” of the world economy.
After almost thirty years of measurement, the gentle rise in average global temperatures is near the bottom of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If, as many now expect, the world enters a cooling trend over the next few decades, average temperatures will fall entirely outside that range, and demonstrate conclusively that the IPCC models do not provide a reliable foundation for climate policy.
Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) now supply 84% of global energy needs, and consumption of oil and natural gas is rising at its fastest rate in history, with no current prospect of subsiding. If, as projected by all major authorities on global energy supply and demand, these trends continue through to 2030 and beyond, driven by economic growth in Asia, why would people in the OECD countries accept the claims of climate activists that they must reduce their use of fossil fuels?
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased, not decreased, by 12 per cent over the past decade, despite claims that the world must sharply reduce emissions. Even if global emissions were to stabilize, as some forecasters suggest, that will represent a major departure from the “pathways” to reduced emissions that climate alarmists say is essential. At which point will the claims of rapid decarbonization become untenable?
Following the COP21 conference in Paris in 2015, many OECD countries submitted plans about how they would reduce GHG emissions by 2030. Many developing countries submitted similar plans conditional upon receiving financial assistance in the form of the Green Climate Fund (i.e. U.S. $100 billion per year). When countries report on their progress before the November 2020 COP, it will become clear that nine out the ten largest GHG emitters are not on track to meet the 2030 targets. The total contributions to the Green Climate Fund, as of mid-2018, were $10.2 billion. Despite the certain calls for more aggressive emission reductions, it will be clear by the end of this year that the entire U.N. artifice of supposed commitments to decarbonization is flawed.
When reality fails to match prophesy, those who follow climate and energy policy developments closely will see the rationale for drastic transition crumble. The Canadian public, unfortunately, may not react until climate taxes and other measures impose intolerable costs on the average person. We do not have a crystal ball for that.