Contributed by consulting geologist Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2018-6 (one slide only), updated © 25th December 2018

PDF of slide also posted here: 

IPCC’s 2013 report (co-author physicist Dr M. Lockwood FRS), citing publications by Lockwood, says the sun “cannot explain global mean surface warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance has declined over this period” (red bar versus blue bar below). (So instead IPCC blames man’s additions of CO2, a gas that even now totals just 1/2500th [400ppm] of Earth’s atmosphere [near plant-starvation level], 1/10th of previous values.)

But this assumes Earth’s average surface temperature reacts very quickly to solar-output changes, with a time-lag of only 3 years (y) or less. On the contrary, massive ocean thermal inertia (google it), discounted by IPCC, possibly causes a 25y lag, as shown below by simply cross-correlating the solar (cosmic-ray proxy) and temperature graphs (compare circles & yellow bars). Similarly various pre-2013 authors estimated 15-20y lag, based on theory.


As predicted by the lag, Earth is now cooling (green box). This cooling, which so far has lasted 2.7y (Feb 2016 peak to Oct 2018), already exceeds all other coolings since 1995 (green bars) in both duration & magnitude (0.5°C).

If, as I predict, cooling continues (dotted green bars), man-made-global-warming believers will by 2021 have to admit they were wrong, that CO2 is blameless, and that Svensmark’s sun/cosmic ray/cloud/temp. link is correct.