By Norm Kalmanovitch, P. Geoph.

Resident Science Adviser & Friends of Science member


On February 22, 2013 IPCC Chair Rajendra Pachauri acknowledged a 17 year “pause” in global warming essentially confessing to the Australian press that global warming had already ended by 1996 (which was before the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change was even initiated!)


Solar Cycles are a Critical Predictor of Climate Change

The sun has a number of cyclical patterns that give rise to fairly predictable patterns of warming and cooling on earth. We saw the ‘pause’ coming.


Solar Cycles

ssn_predict_l-580x435 (1)

The Pause

Another year has passed since Pachauri’s pronouncement of the 17 year “Pause.” The global cooling that began in 2002, is related to a drop in Total Solar Irradiance. Each year of global cooling erased a portion of previous global warming to where the point of zero net global warming now stands somewhere between 1995 and 1997 depending on the global temperature dataset used.


Drop in solar irradiance is visibly evident since 2002.

Graph from the World Radiation Center in Davos, Switzerland. (yellow bar added to illustrate decline.)


The global cooling was in turn caused by the 0.8W/m2 decrease in total solar irradiance between the peak of solar cycle 23 in 2001 and the peak of solar cycle 24 in 2014. The peak of solar cycle 25 is predicted to be even lower than the current solar cycle 24, so all indications are that the current global cooling will not only last until at least 2032; it will intensify.


Climate Model Mania more Important at IPCC than Evidence?

nkblog ipcc models


Climate models are very complex computer simulations – but they suffer from many subjective attributions by designers, and numerous climate interactions are impossible to model.  Climate models continue to predict extreme warming – reality tells us the opposite. Temperatures have flat lined…and are cooling.

If it’s already cooling, why must we stop global warming?

With the world now cooling for a dozen years as CO2 emissions reach new record high levels year after year, it is ridiculous to me, for the head of the IPCC to contradict his own statement that global warming ended before the 1997 Kyoto Accord was initiated. Kyoto was initiated to “stop global warming.”  Global warming has stopped naturally.  Why does Pachauri continue to claim that we have to honour the ludicrous “save the world from global warming by reducing GHG emissions” premise of the same Kyoto Accord?!

In my opinion, even more ridiculous than claiming that we have to stop global warming in a cooling world, is the way that the IPCC, World Bank and others want to do it. Since 1997 the world has spent over a trillion dollars on IPCC approved initiatives aimed at reducing CO2 emissions only to have global CO2 emissions increase from 24.3 billion tonnes in 1997 to over 35 billion tonnes today.

If initiatives did not work in the past and humankind only wasted a trillion dollars for nothing; how is more of the same going to do anything to stop global warming…. considering that global warming already stopped before this trillion dollars was spent.

Mission Impossible – Renewables not so Doable or “Affordable”

Along with the demand we ‘stop global warming’ is the alleged solution – ‘renewable power’ in the form of wind and solar.

That truly is a mission impossible, and an expensive one at that.

As of 2013 renewables make up only 2.2% of the world’s primary energy consumption while fossil fuels make up 87% so it will take some doing to follow the IPCC directive and replace fossil fuels with renewables.

The sheer idiocy of the preposterous statement that we must reduce GHG emissions (i.e. CO2 emissions) to zero by the end of this century is demonstrated by primary energy consumption increasing by 247.2MBOE (million barrels of oil equivalent) with renewables only supplying 38.5MBOE of the increase.

If we are increasing our energy consumption of fossil fuels by over five times more than we are increasing our supply of energy from renewables; exactly how are we going to achieve a GHG emissions reduction to zero by the end of the century when we are already losing ground at this rate!

The 2012 primary energy consumption 12483.2MBOE, 2013 primary energy consumption 12730.4MBOE 2013 Fossil fuel consumption 11032.2MBOE 2013 renewables 279.3MBOE)

We told you so!

On April 14, 2008, I and four of my climate science associates sent a letter to Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

We sent a graph showing the decline.

In 2008 meteorologist Joe D’Aleo not only pointed out the global cooling trend starting in 2002, but made a graph of both global temperature and atmospheric CO2concentration captioned with “World Temperatures Falling Whilst CO2 Keeps Rising”. He and I were some of the first to notice and openly talk about the start of the current global cooling trend on the global temperature data.

We asked Pachauri to honour the empirical evidence.

After three months and receiving no response from Pachauri, on July 14, 2008 we sent a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon demanding that “The UN Climate Change Panel must be called to account and cease its deceptive practices- Policies based on false science must be ended.”

Included in this letter was the original letter to Rajendra Pachauri which provided the scientific evidence refuting the IPCC’s anthropogenic global warming (AGW) conjecture. Both Pachauri and UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon were made aware of empirical data refuting the IPCC’s AGW dogma.

Yet on November 2, 2014, with the release of the IPCC Synthesis report, they boldly proclaimed their ignorance and preached the same dogma that empirical evidence refuted back in 2008 and still refutes today.

People wondered why we are running billboards.

Now you get it. It’s a public service.

No one else is going to tell you.

Norm Kalmanovtch, P. Geoph.

solar wind

Our tiny earth is shielded by a magnetic field that resists the solar wind, a proton blast travelling at a million kmph. During periods of high solar activity the field is affected in various ways, disturbing our atmosphere and affecting interrelated systems on earth as seen below.

sun affects many things